Rural areas in parts of the West Country are traditionally the first to feel the impact of the chill winds of recession and the last to benefit from the warming rays of rising economic optimism. So while London has been benefiting from a lift in Britain's financial fortunes for several months, in the shires – and particularly among rural businesses – we've had to wait a good deal longer to enjoy any sort of upturn.
The good news, however, is that it appears to be beginning.
The Rural Economic Index for the second quarter of 2013 suggests the early signs of recovery are now being felt across the rural sector, particularly among non-farming businesses. And the confidence is being translated into investment and improving employment opportunities.
What we are talking about here, of course, is confidence. It is a feeling rather than hard economic evidence of an uplift in fortunes. It is good news but no reason yet to break out the finest quality English sparkling wine.
As Jason Beedell, head of research at land agents Smiths Gore, which carried out the survey, points out: "Confidence... is often an early indicator of profitability."
So it is, but most businessmen – and their accountants – would like to see the numbers improving before they declared the downturn over.
As always, when a period of recession comes to an end, the Government has been crowing about factories booming and high street sales lifting.
Yet that is not a fair reflection of the rural economy, where the lift-off can be much slower and shallower.
Nor does it take into account the special difficulties of the agricultural sector, still recovering from the appalling 2012 growing season and continually beset by red tape and the threat of disease. T
he trajectory, for all rural businesses, however, is upwards and confidence is rising. It has been a long time since anyone could say that. Let's hope it continues.
